Hodlers refuse to sell

Jan Klosowski ·

The article comes from the Newsletter #11. When you open account on Deltabadger, you receive it every Sunday. The other way to get it is to subscribe to our Telegram News Channel where you can also leave a comment.

Last week, we discussed Ledger Recover. I was critical of it; therefore, it’s only fair to acknowledge when they do something commendable. It looks like Ledger listens and has decided to open-source both the Ledger Recover code and the device firmware. Although I remain undecided about entrusting your keys to Ledger Recover, I appreciate their initiative to open-source it. Until this process is complete, they will postpone launching the service.

Continuing good news, I came across some interesting statistics:

BTC: Supply Last Active Age Bands

The amount of Bitcoin not moved in over a year has risen to a record 68.13% as Hodlers refuse to sell, showing increased conviction in its value. This trend is supported by the ‘Bitcoin liveliness metric’ hitting its lowest level since December 2020, indicating that hodling is currently the dominant market behavior.

I wish you all to be in this place one day, where you don’t have to buy anymore and you can simply hodl a nice portfolio that is “in green” even when newcomers see the market in the red. How to get there?

Never wait for the bottom

One of the benefits of running a crypto business is having an insight into what many people are doing on the market. First, I never feel alone seeing so many people DCA-ing all the time. I share some of those stats on the homepage and Telegram channel. However, I also quickly notice when enthusiasm hits after sudden price movements.

DCA is a simple strategy, but people still try to time the market with it, waiting for signs of a trend reversal. Here is the surprise:

Starting your DCA at the top is better than starting at the bottom.

How is that possible? When the price only moves up, the asset is getting more expensive while you try to buy more. Simply speaking, the train you want to catch is running away.

Consider the opposite scenario: you start at the top. And while the price is going down, you accumulate, the price is getting better and better. When finally the moment of reversal happens, and other people start to buy, you can often stop doing it because you have built a substantial portfolio with an excellent average price. You sit in the train’s first class and watch people trying to catch it from the window.

Start at th top get better average price

We’re still in the bear market, and this is the time to patiently build your position on the market. Only invest an amount you can easily continue to DCA with for as long as necessary.

At Deltabadger, I always champion this long-term approach, and all upcoming features are designed to support this type of investing. Let’s end on a high note and watch Michael Saylor himself discussed Apple in 2012. Since then, the stock is almost 9X up, and he’s now all-in on Bitcoin. I bet he’s right again.

Comment on Telegram →