Do I still believe?

I’m at the NFT Tallinn event, gathering knowledge before the Legendary Badgers mint, and I wasn’t sure if I’d manage to write a newsletter, but inspiration struck when a friend asked if I still believe in Bitcoin.

I get this a lot: “Bitcoin failed as a currency because…”

There are multiple reasons, but the nuance is that there were more, and many are long gone:

• 14 years on the market, still not hacked, and not going anywhere
• Cheap transactions with huge throughput thanks to Lightning Network
• All forks died badly, proving that you can’t copy Bitcoin
• China no longer dominates mining
• Legal tender in the first country
• SEC confirmed it’s not a security

All those topics were proof that Bitcoin was a failure. All are gone. Now, Bitcoin fails because it’s not green. There is always a new reason.

Bitcoin doesn’t care, and neither should you.

Hyperbitcoinization is a story for decades, and Bitcoin is moving slowly toward it. No big leaps. Step-by-step. Why do so many people not notice this transition while it’s happening? For the same reasons we can’t see biological evolution in action. Because it takes millions of years to create a new species, and humans have existed for only 200k years, with written history for only 3.4k years.

Bitcoin has existed for only 14 years, and we still can’t see how it evolves and grows because it happens too slowly. We can’t trust our feelings. We have to look at the data. And here it is:

If you look at the number of transactions, we’ve just hit another all-time high. Primarily, thanks to Ordinals — another controversial topic for another time, but no matter what you think about Bitcoin NFTs, network usage is one of the most honest indicators of its vitality.

For me personally, it’s even simpler than that. I’m fortunate to have a business that accepts Bitcoin payments, so every week, I have the only proof I ever need. A new payment comes in, and I know: Bitcoin works.

We’re all looking for certainty and short-term profits, but remember:

The more certain it is short-term, the smaller the potential win. Short-term certainty is expensive. Long-term opportunities are on a discount, so get some!

The short, boring answer is: every year, I’m more certain that Bitcoin is changing the world and getting stronger. Sure, it has become a bit boring, but all great investments are.